{"id":659,"date":"2026-06-29T16:09:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T16:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertytransitionmedia.com\/?p=659"},"modified":"2026-06-29T16:09:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T16:09:31","slug":"new-study-immigration-caused-40-of-your-rent-hikes-over-10-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertytransitionmedia.com\/?p=659","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Immigration Caused 40% Of Your Rent Hikes Over 10 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Immigration\u00a0accounts for as much as 40 percent of U.S. rent increases as the housing affordability crisis continues to plague millions of Americans, according to a forthcoming study shared exclusively with The Federalist.<\/p>\n

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The paper, \u201cImmigration and Rent: A PUMA-Based Spatial Analysis,\u201d will appear this fall in Cityscape magazine as part of a collection of works exploring the relationship between immigration and housing markets.<\/p>\n

The research conducted by Dr. Jason Richwine, a resident scholar at the Center for Immigration Studies, found that the surge of immigration which started during the Biden administration has direct implications on the affordability of housing in America today.<\/p>\n

His measurement of migration accounts for both legal and illegal immigrants. Although he noted that the exact amount of each within that percentage is hard to quantify as the word \u201cimmigrant\u201d has become a gray area.<\/p>\n

The Proof Is In The PUMA<\/h2>\n

Since 2020, home prices have increased by 54 percent nationwide and more than 50 percent in 73 of the country\u2019s 100 largest metros, says Axios.<\/p>\n

A recent Federal Reserve found that unauthorized immigrant worker flows caused 30 percent of the total increase in house prices and 20 percent of the increase in rent.<\/p>\n

From Dr. Richwine\u2019s examination of data from 2013-2022, his findings attribute immigration to 40 percent of the real rent increase. His study takes into account the indirect \u201cspillover effects\u201d caused by immigration.<\/p>\n

Dr. Richwine\u2019s study uses a different kind of sample size called a PUMA (Public Use Microdata Area) \u2014 the smallest geographical unit available to researchers from the United States Census Bureau.<\/p>\n

In past studies, a number of researchers observed a positive correlation between immigration and housing values using Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) spatial analysis. They estimated \u201can immigration inflow equal to 1 percent of a city\u2019s population is associated with increases in average rents and housing values of about 1 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYou look at how much immigration is going up in a certain area, like a state or a county and then sees what the effect on housing is there,\u201d Dr. Richwine said. \u201cBut the problem with that literature has been the fact that rent tends to be very much spatially correlated \u2013 if rent goes up in one county, its likely to go up in an adjoining county.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Richwine calls this the \u201cspillover effect.\u201d By separating the spatial effects and then measuring the indirect \u201cspillover effects,\u201d this research paints a clearer picture of immigration\u2019s overreach into communities, theoretically spread over the whole country.<\/p>\n

\u201cTaking all spillover effects into account,\u00a0a simultaneous 1 percentage-point increase in immigration in all PUMAs is associated with an average increase in native rent of 1.46 percent,\u201d Dr. Richwine\u2019s abstract reads. \u201cAlong with a 0.65 percentage-point increase in the share of natives who are\u00a0burdened by a high rent\/income ratio.\u201d<\/p>\n

Based on these findings, for every 1 percentage point change in immigration, cost of rent went up by about 1.5 percent. Meaning, if there\u2019s a 10 percent point change in immigration, then it would be a 15 percent increase in rent. When that rent goes up in one PUMA, it also causes rent to go up in surrounding PUMAs because of the way the markets are intertwined.<\/p>\n

\u201cImmigrants coming into one PUMA is kind of like throwing a little stone into a lake and you see the ripples coming away,\u201d Richwine said. \u201cWhere the stone splashes are the direct effects, and the ripples are the indirect effects.\u201d<\/p>\n

The study find that those indirect effects spread over the whole country, making larger ripples near the adjacent PUMAs. These reverberations happen spatially when immigrants come to a large share of American geography.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we just had immigration to one PUMA, it wouldn\u2019t really have a very large effect, but the fact is we have immigration coming to lots of PUMAs,\u201d Richwine said. \u201cAnd under the model, if you have immigrants coming to every PUMA, that\u2019s like throwing thousands of stones into the lake all at once, and then all those ripple effects kind of interact with each other.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the city of Los Angeles alone there are 50 different measured PUMAs.<\/p>\n

LA is a known immigration hub and sanctuary city, with of the population of Los Angeles County being foreign-born. The current cost to rent is also 36 percent higher than the national average. Los Angeles also faces a historic housing crisis. In 2021, California mandated LA must add more than 450,000 housing units by 2029 to keep up with the current demand. However, the city has only issued permits for 81,306 housing units so far.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s Border Crisis <\/h2>\n

From 2021-2024, the United States saw the largest influx of immigrants in its history.<\/p>\n

During the Biden surge, over 10 million unauthorized migrants entered the country illegally. Last year, during a press conference, Border Czar Tom Homan told the Washington Examiner he estimated \u201cat least 20 million\u201d immigrants were living in the country illegally.<\/p>\n

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\u201c10.5 million we know of came to the border. How many don\u2019t we know of?\u201d Homan said. \u201cA thousand people could have crossed a day that we didn\u2019t know of.\u201d<\/p>\n

Former DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas granted tens of thousands of people parole of Section 212 D-5 of the Immigration Nationality Act or were made to give migrants Temporary Protected Status, allowing them to live in the United States without a visa.<\/p>\n

The Migration Policy Institute estimated 5-6 million migrants without visas were granted entry.<\/p>\n

Dr. Richwine also recently wrote about an academic paper examining the motivations of migrants passing through a Honduras shelter, Casa del Migrante, in 2022. 99 percent said they were coming to the United States for \u201ceconomic reasons,\u201d while only 1 percent claimed humanitarian protection.<\/p>\n

Dr. Richwine wrote that the data from the shelter gave \u201creason to suspect that most of the Biden-era \u201casylum seekers\u201d were economic migrants with \u201can incentive to claim\u201d asylum seeker status in order to more easily enter the country.<\/p>\n

By early 2024, the total foreign-born population reached a record high of 51.6 million, representing 15.6 percent of the overall U.S. population. <\/p>\n

According to the \u201cWorst Case Housing Needs 2025\u201d to Congress from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, \u201can immigration-driven increase in households has contributed to a significant increase in housing demand, thus driving up housing prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Housing Affordability Implications<\/h2>\n

Dr. Richwine\u2019s research comes at a time when the housing affordability crisis in America has become a hot-button political issue, and the\u00a0Senate is expected to vote\u00a0on a final version of\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Dr. Richwine shared that his findings show economic impacts in terms of housing and immigration are only one part of the story. The indirect ripple effects, though hard to quantify, demonstrate major political and cultural changes communities experience nationwide as a result of immigration.<\/p>\n

\u201cRegardless of how immigration may or may not benefit the economy, there are people who feel like they\u2019re losing a sense of their own nationhood,\u201d Richwine said. \u201cThey have immigrants coming into an area and suddenly it feels very culturally different.\u201d<\/p>\n

Based on Richwine\u2019s findings, building more housing would not mitigate but might even escalate the indirect spill-over effects that happen in a community.<\/p>\n

\u201cHousing will always be a limited commodity and its always going to be slower than immigration,\u201d Dr. Richwine said. \u201cIt\u2019s difficult to adapt quickly but even if we did, that would be a pretty significant transformation that fundamentally alters the character of existing neighborhoods. If that\u2019s the solution than you really have to deal with all the other major political, cultural, and economic in-direct effects that are going to come from transforming neighborhoods and towns like that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Steven Camarota, Director of Research for the Center of Immigration Studies and guest editor of the upcoming Cityscape edition, testified at a congressional hearing in 2024 about the consequences of illegal immigration for housing affordability.<\/p>\n

\u201cIncrease in population and households represents a significant increase in demand for housing in many locality. Our prior estimate indicated that some 60 percent of the growth in foreign born came from illegal immigration,\u201d Camarota\u2019s reads. \u201cIllegal immigration is significantly increasing demand for housing, particularly for rental property. Of households headed by an immigrant who arrived between January 2022 to August 2024, 89.5 percent responded they were renters.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Camarota says the housing crisis needs to be understood in terms of \u201cwinners and losers\u201d not necessarily \u201cgood and bad.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSome view increased rent and tax as good for the economy and that\u2019s a win for some people, like land-lords for example,\u201d Camarota said. \u201cBut the losers tend to be younger people just starting out who now can\u2019t afford or find low-income housing in these areas and then need to move into adjacent communities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Camarota also spoke on the challenges he and his colleagues face in sharing their research finds with the corporate media.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe media bias is such that among academic researchers in general, talking about the potentially problematic aspects of immigration is seen as problematic itself,\u201d Dr. Camarota said. \u201cSaying that immigration drives up housing prices should not be controversial. It\u2019s not all bad, it\u2019s not all good, but you can\u2019t say it\u2019s not happening.\u201d<\/p>\n

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A soon-to-be published paper examining data from 2013-2022, attributes 40 percent of rent increases to immigration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[296],"tags":[2326,2327,2328,1082,2329,2330,2331,2332,293,2333,2334,2335,2336],"class_list":["post-659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-immigration","tag-biden-border-crisis","tag-census-bureau","tag-center-for-immigration-studies","tag-exclusive","tag-high-costs","tag-homeland-security","tag-housing-affordability","tag-housing-crisis","tag-immigration","tag-puma","tag-rent","tag-research","tag-tom-holman"],"yoast_head":"\nNew Study: Immigration Caused 40% Of Your Rent Hikes Over 10 Years - Property Transition Media<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/propertytransitionmedia.com\/?p=659\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Study: Immigration Caused 40% Of Your Rent Hikes Over 10 Years - 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